Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 35.027414 39.546927 44.864268 51.706299 60.472728 71.628143 87.445147
2025-04-27 28.917438 34.462358 41.654673 52.096184 67.733529 92.110130 138.153755
2025-05-04 25.152325 31.131290 39.456360 52.746552 75.556552 119.199822 237.975593
2025-05-11 22.426626 28.527885 37.483437 52.896756 82.664128 152.552204 463.945173
2025-05-18 20.169499 26.148968 35.260357 51.843847 87.045685 186.768557 1067.400714
2025-05-25 18.650145 24.600457 33.986564 52.014015 94.184967 243.429373 9201.141666
2025-06-01 17.323022 23.153007 32.598955 51.540564 99.679263 312.333383 NaN
2025-06-08 16.164148 21.826715 31.196866 50.653538 103.726404 396.179394 NaN
2025-06-15 15.208829 20.722656 30.019058 49.944631 108.090984 519.008363 NaN
2025-06-22 14.423238 19.817361 29.072782 49.522209 113.378771 724.644773 NaN
2025-06-29 13.609382 18.795726 27.791923 48.053305 114.198661 920.694794 NaN
2025-07-06 13.397858 18.760182 28.338736 51.088079 135.737264 3328.087999 NaN
2025-07-13 12.801505 18.027202 27.476564 50.434837 141.131678 10904.132978 NaN
2025-07-20 12.368009 17.544896 27.056069 50.870791 153.133134 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 11.992746 17.136232 26.736941 51.523771 168.006988 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 11.607533 16.682372 26.276881 51.680611 180.853871 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 11.161188 16.091110 25.476391 50.672601 184.713643 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 10.841990 15.710829 25.085584 50.838774 199.011507 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 10.501133 15.271322 24.529742 50.383911 208.129131 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 10.156575 14.807252 23.884535 49.529933 212.912989 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 9.847702 14.394187 23.319998 48.847004 219.255577 NaN NaN
2025-09-14 9.578017 14.041022 22.861030 48.439917 228.924510 NaN NaN
2025-09-21 9.258448 13.581205 22.136385 47.023435 224.830507 NaN NaN